• Ying X Gue, Max Sayers, Benjamin T Whitby, Rahim Kanji, Krishma Adatia, Robert Smith, William R Davies, Aris Perperoglou, Tatjana S Potpara, Lip Gregory Y H GYH Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, United Kingdom; Aalborg Thrombosis Research, and Diana A Gorog.
• University of Hertfordshire, United Kingdom; East and North Hertfordshire NHS Trust, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom.
• Am. J. Med. 2020 Nov 1; 133 (11): 1328-1335.

PurposeOut-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) carries a very high mortality rate even after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Currently, information given to relatives about prognosis following resuscitation is often emotive and subjective, and varies with clinician experience. We aimed to validate the NULL-PLEASE score to predict survival following OHCA.MethodsA multicenter cohort study was conducted, with retrospective and prospective validation in consecutive unselected patients presenting with OHCA. The NULL-PLEASE score was calculated by attributing points to the following variables: Nonshockable initial rhythm, Unwitnessed arrest, Long low-flow period, Long no-flow period, pH <7.2, Lactate >7.0 mmol/L, End-stage renal failure, Age ≥85 years, Still resuscitation, and Extracardiac cause. The primary outcome was in-hospital death.ResultsWe assessed 700 patients admitted with OHCA, of whom 47% survived to discharge. In 300 patients we performed a retrospective validation, followed by prospective validation in 400 patients. The NULL-PLEASE score was lower in patients who survived compared with those who died (0 [interquartile range 0-1] vs 4 [interquartile range 2-4], P < .0005) and strongly predictive of in-hospital death (C-statistic 0.874; 95% confidence interval, 0.848-0.899). Patients with a score ≥3 had a 24-fold increased risk of death (odds ratio 23.6; 95% confidence interval, 14.840-37.5; P < .0005) compared with those with lower scores. A score ≥3 has a 91% positive predictive value for in-hospital death, while a score <3 predicts a 71% chance of survival.ConclusionThe easy-to-use NULL-PLEASE score predicts in-hospital mortality with high specificity and can help clinicians explain the prognosis to relatives in an easy-to-understand, objective fashion, to realistically prepare them for the future.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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