• Michael Moore, Beth Stuart, Mark Lown, Ann Van den Bruel, Sue Smith, Kyle Knox, Matthew J Thompson, and Paul Little.
• University of Southampton, Primary Care and Population Sciences, Aldermoor Health Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom mvm198@soton.ac.uk.
• Ann Fam Med. 2019 May 1; 17 (3): 231-238.

PurposePresentation with acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in primary care is common. The aim of this study was to help clinicians treat patients presenting with LRTI in primary care by identifying those at risk of serious adverse outcomes (death, admission, late-onset pneumonia).MethodsIn a prospective cohort study of patients presenting with LRTI symptoms, patient characteristics and clinical findings were recorded and adverse events identified over 30 days by chart review. Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified predictors of adverse outcomes.ResultsParticipants were recruited from 522 UK practices in 2009-2013. The analysis was restricted to the 28,846 adult patients not referred immediately to the hospital. Serious adverse outcomes occurred in 325/28,846 (1.1%). Eight factors were independently predictive; these characterized symptom severity (absence of coryza, fever, chest pain, and clinician-assessed severity), patient vulnerability (age >65 years, comorbidity), and physiological impact (oxygen saturation <95%, low blood pressure). In aggregate, the 8 features had moderate predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71, 95% CI, 0.68-0.74); the 4% of patients with ≥5 features had an approximately 1 in 17 (5.7%) risk of serious adverse outcomes, the 35% with 3 or 4 features had an intermediate risk (1 in 50, 2.0%), and the 61% with ≤2 features had a low (1 in 200, 0.5%) risk.ConclusionsIn routine practice most patients presenting with LRTI in primary care can be identified as at intermediate or low risk of serious outcome.© 2019 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

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