• Björn Eriksson, Per Wändell, Ulf Dahlström, Per Näsman, Lars H Lund, and Magnus Edner.
• Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Karolinska Institutet, Huddinge, Sweden.
• Scand J Prim Health Care. 2019 Dec 1; 37 (4): 434-443.

AbstractAim: The prognostic value of natriuretic peptides in the management of heart failure (HF) patients with ejection fraction (EF) <40% is well established, but is less known for those with EF ≥40% managed in primary care (PC). Therefore, the aim of this study is to describe the prognostic significance of plasma NT-proBNP in such patients managed in PC.Subjects: We included 924 HF patients (48% women) with EF ≥40% and NT-proBNP registered in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry. Follow-up was 1100 ± 687 days.Results: One-, three- and five-year mortality rates were 8.1%, 23.9% and 44.7% in patients with EF 40-50% (HFmrEF) and 7.3%, 23.6% and 37.2% in patients with EF ≥50% (HFpEF) (p = 0.26). Patients with the highest mean values of NT-proBNP had the highest all-cause mortality but wide standard deviations (SDs). In univariate regression analysis, there was an association only between NT-proBNP quartiles and all-cause mortality. In HFmrEF patients, hazard ratio (HR) was 1.96 (95% CI 1.60-2.39) p < 0.0001) and in HFpEF patients, HR was 1.72 (95% CI 1.49-1.98) p < 0.0001). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, adjusted for age, NYHA class, atrial fibrillation and GFR class, this association remained regarding NT-proBNP quartiles [HR 1.83 (95% CI 1.38-2.44), p < 0.0001] and [HR 1.48 (95% CI 1.16-1.90), p = 0.0001], HFmrEF and HFpEF, respectively.Conclusion: NT-proBNP has a prognostic value in patients with HF and EF ≥40% managed in PC. However, its clinical utility is limited due to high SDs and the fact that it is not independent in this population which is characterized by high age and much comorbidity.Key pointsIt is uncertain whether NT-proBNP predicts risk in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (EF > 40%, HFpEF) managed in primary care.We show that high NT-proBNP predicts increased all-cause mortality in HFpEF-patients managed in primary care.The clinical use is however limited due to large standard deviations, many co-morbidities and high age.Many of these co-morbidities contribute to all-cause mortality and management of these patients should also focus on these co-morbidities.

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