• Ameet Bakhai, Hans Petri, Farnaz Vahidnia, Cyrill Wolf, Yingjie Ding, Nadia Foskett, and Mark Sculpher.
• Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, Barnet General Hospital, Cardiology Department, Barnet, and Amore Health Ltd, London, UK.
• J Eval Clin Pract. 2021 Feb 1; 27 (1): 119-133.

Rationale, Aims, And ObjectivesSeveral novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are licensed for atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment in the United Kingdom. We describe the incidence and mortality from ischaemic stroke and major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in England, including treatment patterns before/following introduction of NOACs, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and costs post-onset of these events.MethodData were extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data.ResultsOf 42 966 patients with a first AF record between 2011 and 2016, 9143 patients (21.3%) remained without AF (antiplatelets/antithrombotics) treatment post-index diagnosis. The proportion of patients receiving aspirin for ≥3 months post-index declined during the study (50.6%-5.5%), irrespective of CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, while the proportion prescribed NOACs increased (2.0%-70.1%). Rates of ischaemic stroke per 1000 patient-years (95% CI) were 9.4 (3.8-15.0) with NOACs, 10.4 (8.0-12.9) with warfarin, 20.1 (16.4-23.8) with aspirin, 21.3 (5.3-37.2) with other antiplatelets and 43.6 (39.3-47.8) in patients without AF prescription. Major bleeding occurred at a similar rate with different treatments. All-cause mortality rates were 42.8 (31.4-54.3) with NOACs, 46.3 (41.1-51.5) with warfarin, 56.5 (50.5-62.4) with aspirin, 102.2 (76.2-128.3) with other antiplatelets and 412.8 (399.6-426.0) with no AF prescription. Mean annual National Health Service healthcare costs up to 1 year post-index were lowest in patients receiving aspirin plus other antiplatelets without an event (£6152), and highest in patients with an event without AF prescriptions (£17 957). By extrapolation, national AF HRU in the United Kingdom in 2016 was estimated at £8-16 billion annually.ConclusionsThese data provide temporal insights into AF treatment patterns and outcomes for NVAF patients in England and highlight the need to review higher stroke risk AF patients not receiving antiplatelet/antithrombotic prescriptions.© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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