Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
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In the US, national, regional and even institutional plans for ameliorating the effects of pandemic influenza focus on stockpiling antiviral medications, early production and distribution of vaccine, mass and personal social distancing, and a number of personal hygiene activities. Essential personnel are the first scheduled to receive preventive and therapeutic pharmaceuticals, followed by high risk groups, the largest of which are the elderly. Specific recommendations for protection embody a bunker mentality with a time horizon of two weeks, emulating preparation for a natural disaster. ⋯ The key findings of models of chronic care institutions and others that can control public access, such as corporations, are used to describe programs with a realistic chance of providing protection in even severe pandemics. These principles are further mapped onto individual residences. Materials directing institutional and home planning are cited.
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The lessons learned from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic, as it moves out of the limelight, should not be under-estimated, particularly since the probability of novel influenza epidemics in the near future is not negligible and the potential consequences might be huge. Hence, as the world, particularly the industrialized world, responded to the potentially devastating effects of this novel A-H1N1 strain with substantial resources, reminders of the recurrent loss of life from a well established foe, seasonal influenza, could not be ignored. The uncertainties associated with the reported and expected levels of morbidity and mortality with this novel A-H1N1 live in a backdrop of deaths, over 200,000 hospitalizations, and millions of infections (20% of the population) attributed to seasonal influenza in the USA alone, each year. ⋯ The optimal policies identified might have, if implemented, a substantial impact on the novel H1N1 and seasonal influenza co-circulating dynamics. Specifically, the implementation of antiviral treatment might reduce the number of influenza cases by up to 60% under a reasonable seasonal vaccination strategy, but only by up to 37% when the seasonal vaccine is not available. Optimal social distancing policies alone can be as effective as the combination of multiple policies, reducing the total number of influenza cases by more than 99% within a single outbreak, an unrealistic but theoretically possible outcome for isolated populations with limited resources.
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The 2009 A (H1N1) influenza pandemic was rather atypical. It began in North America at the start of the spring and in the following months, as it moved south, efforts to develop a vaccine that would mitigate the potential impact of a second wave were accelerated. ⋯ Furthermore, even after the vaccine was in production, extensive delays in vaccine distribution were experienced for various reasons. In this note, we use optimal control theory to explore the impact of some of the constraints faced by most nations in implementing a public health policy that tried to meet the challenges that come from having access only to a limited vaccine supply that is never 100% effective.