Gates open research
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More than 85% of Covid-19 mortality in high income countries is among people 65 years of age or older. Recent disaggregated data from the UK and US show that minority communities have increased mortality among younger age groups and in South Africa initial data suggest that the majority of deaths from Covid-19 are under 65 years of age. These observations suggest significant potential for increased Covid-19 mortality among younger populations in Africa and South Asia and may impact age-based selection of high-risk groups eligible for a future vaccine.
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Gates open research · Jan 2019
Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goal for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT).
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a parasitic, vector-borne neglected tropical disease that has historically affected populations across West and Central Africa and can result in death if untreated. Following from the success of recent intervention programmes against gHAT, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined a 2030 goal of global elimination of transmission (EOT). The key proposed indicator to measure achievement of the goal is zero reported cases. ⋯ At the village-scale, the WHO recommendation of continuing active screening until there are three years of zero cases yields a high probability of local EOT, but extrapolating this result to larger spatial scales is complex. Predictive modelling of gHAT has consistently found that EOT by 2030 is unlikely across key endemic regions if current medical-only strategies are not bolstered by improved coverage, reduced time to detection and/or complementary vector control. Unfortunately, projected costs for strategies expected to meet EOT are high in the short term and strategies that are cost-effective in reducing burden are unlikely to result in EOT by 2030. Future modelling work should aim to provide predictions while taking into account uncertainties in stochastic dynamics and infection reservoirs, as well as assessment of multiple spatial scales, reactive strategies, and measurable proxies of EOT.
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Gates open research · Jan 2018
Eliminating malaria by 2040 among agricultural households in Africa: potential impact on health, labor productivity, education and gender equality.
Background: Ambitious goals have been set to eradicate malaria by the year 2040. Given the high poverty levels and the intense levels of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa, suppressing malaria in rural agricultural communities in these regions will be one of the greatest challenges to achieving malaria eradication. This study has two objectives. ⋯ Eradicating malaria by 2040 would also increase the number of school days attended by children by 1.5 billion days while also reducing the number of caregiving days provided by women for malaria cases by approximately 1.1 billion days. Conclusions: This article analyzes the impact of eradicating malaria among agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa using indicators related to four of the Sustainable Development Goals. Enhanced data collection efforts related to these four indicators would facilitate more rigorous estimates of how eradicating malaria would affect these indicators over the next two decades.
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Gates open research · Jan 2017
Rationale and design of a multi-center, open-label, randomised clinical trial comparing HIV incidence and contraceptive benefits in women using three commonly-used contraceptive methods (the ECHO study).
Background: In vitro, animal, biological and observational clinical studies suggest that some hormonal methods, particularly depot medroxyprogesterone acetate - DMPA, may increase women's risk of HIV acquisition. DMPA is the most common contraceptive used in many countries worst affected by the HIV epidemic. To provide robust evidence for contraceptive decision-making among women, clinicians and planners, we are conducting the Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) study in four countries with high HIV incidence and DMPA use: Kenya, South Africa, Swaziland, and Zambia (Clinical Trials.gov identifier NCT02550067). ⋯ Stringent performance standards are monitored by an independent data and safety monitoring board approximately every 6 months. The study has been conducted with extensive stakeholder engagement. Conclusions: The ECHO study is designed to provide robust evidence on the relative risks (HIV acquisition) and benefits (pregnancy prevention) between three effective contraceptive methods.