Proceedings. Biological sciences
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SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. ⋯ A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.
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Review
Emerging infectious disease and the challenges of social distancing in human and non-human animals.
The 'social distancing' that occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in humans provides a powerful illustration of the intimate relationship between infectious disease and social behaviour in animals. Indeed, directly transmitted pathogens have long been considered a major cost of group living in humans and other social animals, as well as a driver of the evolution of group size and social behaviour. ⋯ We consider constraints on altering social behaviour in the face of emerging diseases, including the lack of behavioural plasticity, environmental limitations and conflicting pressures from the many benefits of group living. We also explore the ways that social animals can minimize the costs of disease-induced changes to sociality and the unique advantages that humans may have in maintaining the benefits of sociality despite social distancing.