Internal and emergency medicine
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Background Predicting potential overcrowding is a significant tool in efficient emergency department (ED) management. Our aim was to develop and validate overcrowding predictive models using accessible and high quality information. Methods Retrospective cohort study of consecutive days in the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires ED from june 2016 to may 2018. ⋯ Discrimination for the main model had an area under the receiveroperator curve of 0.997 (95% CI 0.994 - 1) in the validation group. Calibration for the model was very high on internal validation and acceptable on external validation. Conclusion The Sustained Critical EDOC predictive model includes variables that are easily obtained and can be used for effective resource management in situations of overcrowding.