PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak. ⋯ Our projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges.
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Worldwide, snakebite envenomations total ~2.7 million reported cases annually with ~100,000 fatalities. Since 2009, snakebite envenomation has intermittently been classified as a very important 'neglected tropical disease' by the World Health Organisation. Despite this emerging awareness, limited efforts have been geared towards addressing the serious public health implications of snakebites, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where baseline epidemiological and ecological data remain incomplete. Due to poverty as well as limited infrastructure and public health facilities, people in rural Africa, including Ghana, often have no other choice than to seek treatment from traditional medical practitioners (TMPs). The African 'snakebite crisis' is highlighted here using regionally representative complementary data from a community-based epidemiological and ecological study in the savanna zone of northern Ghana. ⋯ The relatively high community-based prevalence of ~6%, and case fatality ratio of ~3%, indicate that snakebites represent an important public health risk in northern Ghana. Based on the high number of respondents and long recording period, we believe these data truly reflect the general situation in the rural northern savanna zone of Ghana and West Africa at large. We recommend increased efforts from both local and international health authorities to address the current snakebite health crisis generally compromising livelihoods and productivity of rural farming communities in West Africa.