Journal of the National Cancer Institute
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J. Natl. Cancer Inst. · Mar 2009
Comparative StudyLead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context.
The time by which prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening advances prostate cancer diagnosis, called the lead time, has been reported by several studies, but results have varied widely, with mean lead times ranging from 3 to 12 years. A quantity that is closely linked with the lead time is the overdiagnosis frequency, which is the fraction of screen-detected cancers that would not have been diagnosed in the absence of screening. Reported overdiagnosis estimates have also been variable, ranging from 25% to greater than 80% of screen-detected cancers. ⋯ The precise definition and the population used to estimate lead time and overdiagnosis can be important drivers of study results and should be clearly specified.