Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
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Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. · Nov 2005
Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.
A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. ⋯ The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
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Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. · Aug 2005
ReviewPharmacogenetics in drug regulation: promise, potential and pitfalls.
Pharmacogenetic factors operate at pharmacokinetic as well as pharmacodynamic levels-the two components of the dose-response curve of a drug. Polymorphisms in drug metabolizing enzymes, transporters and/or pharmacological targets of drugs may profoundly influence the dose-response relationship between individuals. For some drugs, although retrospective data from case studies suggests that these polymorphisms are frequently associated with adverse drug reactions or failure of efficacy, the clinical utility of such data remains unproven. ⋯ Unless prescribers adhere to the prescribing information, much of the benefits of pharmacogenetics will be squandered. Discovering highly predictive genotype-phenotype associations during drug development and demonstrating their clinical validity and utility in well-designed prospective clinical trials will no doubt better define the role of pharmacogenetics in future clinical practice. In the meantime, prescribing should comply with the information provided while pharmacogenetic research is deservedly supported by all concerned but without unrealistic expectations.
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Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. · Feb 2005
Turning science into policy: challenges and experiences from the science-policy interface.
This paper discusses key issues in the science-policy interface. It stresses the importance of linking the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to the Millennium Development Goals and to issues of immediate concern to policy-makers such as the economy, security and human health. It briefly discusses the process of decision-making and how the scientific and policy communities have successfully worked together on global environmental issues such as stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, and the critical role of international assessments in providing the scientific basis for informed policy at the national and international level. The paper also discusses the drivers of global environmental change, the importance of constructing plausible futures, indicators of change, the biodiversity 2010 target and how environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, land degradation, water pollution and climate change cannot be addressed in isolation because they are strongly interconnected and there are synergies and trade-offs among the policies, practices and technologies that are used to address these issues individually.
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Many people see ageing as a time of cognitive and physical decline. For the past three decades, most scientists and the general public have accepted this negative age-stereotype as the norm, but fortunately this view is now challenged. ⋯ This ageism view has been observed in each sphere of science, from genetics to social sciences. Perspectives from each domain are described, and new integrative views of successful ageing are summarized.
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Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci. · Jul 2004
Review Historical ArticleEpidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic.
This paper reviews current understanding of the epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of the aetiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We present analyses of data on key parameters and distributions and discuss the processes of data capture, analysis and public health policy formulation during the SARS epidemic are discussed. ⋯ We present analyses that help to further understanding of what intervention measures are likely to work best with infectious agents of defined biological and epidemiological properties. These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context.