Medical hypotheses
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The concept of behavioral contagion implies that certain behaviors may spread through populations in a way analogous to the spread of microbial diseases. If so, mathematical models that are helpful in understanding the spread of infectious diseases may also help to understand the spread of certain behaviors. ⋯ Predictions made by the mathematical model were compared to descriptions of crowd behavior and of police methods for preventing and controlling the outbreak of riots. Many of the predictions made by the model are consistent with published observations about circumstances where riots may occur, and methods useful for controlling them.
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When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. ⋯ However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care.