Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Apr 2021
Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers.
COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. ⋯ However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Apr 2021
Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses.
The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. ⋯ Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Apr 2021
Generation of SARS-CoV-2 reporter replicon for high-throughput antiviral screening and testing.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) research and antiviral discovery are hampered by the lack of a cell-based virus replication system that can be readily adopted without biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) restrictions. Here, the construction of a noninfectious SARS-CoV-2 reporter replicon and its application in deciphering viral replication mechanisms and evaluating SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors are presented. The replicon genome is replication competent but does not produce progeny virions. ⋯ Using this system, a high-throughput antiviral assay has also been developed. Significant differences in potencies of several SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors in different cell lines were observed, which highlight the challenges of discovering antivirals capable of inhibiting viral replication in vivo and the importance of testing compounds in multiple cell culture models. The generation of a SARS-CoV-2 replicon provides a powerful platform to expand the global research effort to combat COVID-19.