Bulletin of the World Health Organization
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Forecasts of tuberculosis morbidity and mortality are presented for the decade 1990-99. An estimated 88 million new cases of tuberculosis, of which 8 million will be attributable to HIV infection, will occur in the world during the decade; 30 million people are predicted to die of tuberculosis in the same period, including 2.9 million attributable to HIV infection. The number of new tuberculosis cases occurring each year is predicted to increase from 7.5 million (143 cases per 100,000) in 1990 to 8.8 million (152 per 100,000) in 1995 and 10.2 million (163 per 100,000) in the year 2000. ⋯ Demographic factors, such as population growth and changes in the age structure of populations, will account for 79.5% of the predicted increases in new cases. Age-specific incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa are increasing due to the HIV epidemic and will account for the remaining 20.5% of the forecast increase in new cases. In WHO's South-East Asian Region and in Central and South America the age-specific incidence rates are expected to fall during 1990-2000, but at a slower rate than in previous years because of the expected increase in HIV seroprevalence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Jan 1994
Comparative StudyAn evaluation of the HemoCue for measuring haemoglobin in field studies in Jamaica.
The HemoCue system utilizes the principle of oxidation of haemoglobin to hemiglobin by sodium nitrite and the subsequent conversion of hemiglobin to hemiglobinazide by sodium azide. The reagents for these reactions are contained within a small disposable microcuvette of approximately 10 microliters in volume. ⋯ We compared haemoglobin values obtained by the HemoCue system with those from the Coulter Counter S-Plus IV in 366 pregnant women in urban Jamaica, and found a highly significant correlation (r = 0.78, P < 0.01). However, because of the convenience and ease of use of this instrument and considering the relatively high cost, we recommend it for use only as a research tool in field studies where accurate and rapid haemoglobin determinations are required.
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Jan 1994
Design, content and financing of an essential national package of health services.
A minimum package of public health and clinical interventions, which are highly cost-effective and deal with major sources of disease burden, could be provided in low-income countries for about US$ 12 per person per year, and in middle-income countries for about $22. Properly delivered, this package could eliminate 21% to 38% of the burden of premature mortality and disability in children under 15 years and 10-18% of the burden in adults. ⋯ Governments should ensure that, at the least, poor populations have access to these services. Additional public expenditure should then go either to extending coverage to the non-poor or to expansion beyond the minimum collection of services to an essential national package of health care, including somewhat less cost-effective interventions against a larger number of diseases and conditions.
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A meeting of international experts exchanged information on recent activities dealing with new, emerging and re-emerging diseases, discussed ways of responding to this problem and to other communicable disease threats, and reviewed WHO's activities and role in this area. This Memorandum summarizes the various presentations and concludes with the recommendations and specific tasks for action at every level.
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Jan 1994
ReviewNutritional status as a predictor of child survival: summarizing the association and quantifying its global impact.
By pooling the results from five previously published prospective studies, we have obtained estimates of the relative risks of mortality among young children 6-24 months after they had been identified as having mild-to-moderate or severe malnutrition. These risk estimates, along with global malnutrition prevalence data, were then used to calculate the total number of young-childhood deaths "attributable" to malnutrition in developing countries. Young children (6-60 months of age) with mild-to-moderate malnutrition (60-80% of the median weight-for-age of the reference population) had 2.2 times the risk of dying during the follow-up period than their better nourished counterparts (> 80% of the median reference weight-for-age). ⋯ Each year approximately 2.3 million deaths of young children in developing countries (41% of the total for this age group) are associated with malnutrition. The comparability of studies, methods used to derive pooled values, potentially confounding factors that may influence risk estimates, and the validity of the results are discussed. Child survival programmes should assign greater priority to the control of childhood malnutrition.