Bulletin of the World Health Organization
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Apr 2012
Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic.
Outbreak analysis and mathematical modelling are crucial for planning public health responses to infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. This paper describes the data analysis and mathematical modelling undertaken during and following the 2009 influenza pandemic, especially to inform public health planning and decision-making. ⋯ A key lesson was that modelling cannot substitute for data; it can only make use of available data and highlight what additional data might best inform policy. Data gaps in 2009, especially from low-resource countries, made it difficult to evaluate severity, the effects of seasonal variation on transmission and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Better communication between modellers and public health practitioners is needed to manage expectations, facilitate data sharing and interpretation and reduce inconsistency in results.