Bulletin of the World Health Organization
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Apr 2012
Epidemic and intervention modelling--a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic.
Outbreak analysis and mathematical modelling are crucial for planning public health responses to infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. This paper describes the data analysis and mathematical modelling undertaken during and following the 2009 influenza pandemic, especially to inform public health planning and decision-making. ⋯ A key lesson was that modelling cannot substitute for data; it can only make use of available data and highlight what additional data might best inform policy. Data gaps in 2009, especially from low-resource countries, made it difficult to evaluate severity, the effects of seasonal variation on transmission and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Better communication between modellers and public health practitioners is needed to manage expectations, facilitate data sharing and interpretation and reduce inconsistency in results.
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To estimate the global burden of cholera using population-based incidence data and reports. ⋯ The global burden of cholera, as determined through a systematic review with clearly stated assumptions, is high. The findings of this study provide a contemporary basis for planning public health interventions to control cholera.
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Feb 2012
Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?
Tropical storms, such as cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, present major threats to coastal communities. Around two million people worldwide have died and millions have been injured over the past two centuries as a result of tropical storms. Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with around 718 000 deaths from them in the past 50 years. ⋯ This paper summarizes the most recent data and outlines the strategy adopted in Bangladesh. It offers guidance on how similar strategies can be adopted by other countries vulnerable to tropical storms. Further research is needed to enable countries to limit the risks that cyclones present to public health.
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Bull. World Health Organ. · Feb 2012
Surveillance of anti-tuberculosis drug resistance in the world: an updated analysis, 2007-2010.
To present a global update of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) and explore trends in 1994-2010. ⋯ The highest global rates of MDR-TB ever reported were documented in 2009 and 2010. Trends in MDR-TB are still unclear in most settings. Better surveillance or survey data are required, especially from Africa and India.