Behavioural processes
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Behavioural processes · May 2010
An effect of inter-trial duration on the gambler's fallacy choice bias.
The gambler's fallacy is defined as the avoidance of a winning outcome in a stochastic environment with a constant probability. We tested the possibility that the gambler's fallacy in humans is responsive to the amount of time between choice allocations. Two groups of subjects were placed in a six-choice betting game in which the choices were clustered into two "patches." Groups were defined by the length of time - 2s or 6s - between trials. ⋯ This difference was found primarily to be due to differences in the number of subjects showing an opposing bias to the gambler's fallacy, namely a preference for the most recent winning alternative. This choice bias is termed the hot hand fallacy. Our findings contradict predictions derived from a foraging heuristic and from traditional accounts of the gambler's fallacy.
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Six pigeons responded on a four-key concurrent variable-interval schedule in which a 27:9:3:1 distribution of reinforcers between the keys changed every 10 reinforcers. Their behaviour quickly came under the control of this changing four-way reinforcer ratio. However, preference between a pair of keys depended not only on the relative reinforcer rates on those keys, but also on the absolute levels of those rates. ⋯ Despite accurate tracking of the reinforcer ratio, reinforcers obtained late in components and from leaner keys still produced strong pulses, suggesting both extended and local control of behaviour. Patterns of switching between keys were graded and similarly controlled by the reinforcer rates on each key. Whether considered in terms of switching, local preference pulses, or extended preference, behaviour was controlled by a rapidly changing four-way reinforcer ratio in a graduated, continuous manner that is unlikely to be explained by a simple heuristic such as fix-and-sample.