International journal of epidemiology
-
Comparative Study
Application of Markov process modelling to health status switching behaviour of infants.
This study is an attempt to apply Markov process modelling to health status switching behaviour of infants. The data for the study consist of monthly records of diagnosed illnesses for 1152 children, each observed from the month of first contact with Kasangati Health Centre, Kampala, Uganda, until age 18 months. ⋯ The study has shown that the transitions between Health and Illness for infants, from month to month, can be modelled by a Markov Chain for which the (single-step) transition probabilities are generally time-dependent or age-dependent. After the first few months of life the dependence on age may wear off, as in this study, leading to a time-homogeneous Markov Chain, which eventually attains a steady state distribution in about 12 months. Interpretations of the transition probabilities as measures of disease prevalence are discussed.