Environment international
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Environment international · Mar 2014
Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).
The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. ⋯ Excess lifetime cancer incidents were estimated to be between 360 and 850, whereas 220-520 of them will be fatal. Nevertheless, these numbers are expected to be even smaller, as the response of the Japanese official authorities to the accident was rapid. The projected cancer incidents are much lower than the casualties occurred from the earthquake itself (>20,000) and also smaller than the accident of Chernobyl.