Journal of epidemiology and community health
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J Epidemiol Community Health · May 2000
Comparative StudyComparison of weight in middle age, weight at 18 years, and weight change between, in predicting subsequent 14 year mortality and coronary events: Caerphilly Prospective Study.
The prevalence of obesity is increasing in many European countries and in the United States. This report examines the mortality and morbidity associated with being overweight and obese in the Caerphilly Prospective Study and the relative effects of weight in middle age and self reported weight at 18 years. ⋯ Body mass at 18 years of age of 30 kg/m(2) or more conferred increased risk for all cause mortality and major ischaemic heart disease during 14 years of follow up of men aged 45 to 59 years. By the baseline examination the prevalence of obesity (body mass index >/=30) had increased from 1.8% to 12.1%; obese men also showed an excess risk of major ischaemic heart disease and overall mortality, but these risks were lower than those predicted from 18 years of age. Weight gain was strongly associated with smoking habit, the greatest weight gain being among ex-smokers and the least among light smokers. Weight gain from 18 years of age to baseline examination showed little relation with subsequent mortality and risk of major ischaemic heart disease when adjusted for age, smoking habit and social class. The lowest mortality rate occurred in the "fifth" of men who gained a mean weight of 16.1 kg. Weight gain is closely associated with some adverse cardiovascular risk factors; in particular with insulin, triglyceride, glucose and diastolic blood pressure.