Journal of epidemiology and community health
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J Epidemiol Community Health · Jun 2020
How do cardiovascular risk prediction equations developed among 30-74 year olds perform in older age groups? A validation study in 125 000 people aged 75-89 years.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equations are being used to guide risk management among increasingly older individuals. We examined the performance of recent equations, derived from a 2006 cohort including almost all New Zealanders aged 30-74 years, among older people. ⋯ Entire-population CVD risk equations developed among 30-74 year olds do not perform well among older people. Existing risk algorithms developed from primarily middle-aged or early-retirement cohorts should be used with caution in those aged ≥75 years until carefully validated in narrow age bands to avoid masking poorer performance in older age groups.