The Journal of hospital infection
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To evaluate the ability of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) to predict the occurrence of hospital-acquired infections in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, we conducted a cohort study in an eight-bed combined ICU. From January 1991 to December 1992, 690 patients were admitted in the ICU and 656 stayed at least 48 h. Patients' severity of illness was estimated within the first 24 h of the ICU stay using the SAPS. ⋯ Significantly more infections occurred in the patients with a SAPS > 10 points (20.9% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.0001). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for a SAPS > 10 points were 88, 40, 21, and 95%, respectively. Our results suggest that 95% of patients at low risk for developing hospital-acquired infections could be identified on admission with the use of severity scoring systems such as SAPS < or = 10 points.