Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
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To examine the factors predicting preferences for continued hemodialysis treatment among patients with endstage renal disease (ESRD) and to compare these factors to those predicting their spouses' predictions of patients' preferences (substituted judgments). ⋯ Patients and surrogates used different criteria in formulating judgments about continuation of life-sustaining treatment and had different perceptions about the patients' condition. Furthermore, the substituted judgments of spouses were influenced by their own characteristics. These processes may explain inaccurate substituted judgments.
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Markov transition models are frequently used to model disease progression. The authors show how the solution to Kolmogorov's forward equations can be exploited to map between transition rates and probabilities from probability data in multistate models. ⋯ An illustrative example for a 3-state model is given, which shows how the methods extend to more complex Markov models using the software WBDiff to compute solutions. Finally, the authors illustrate how to statistically combine data from multiple sources, including partially observed data at several follow-up times and also how to calibrate a Markov model to be consistent with data from one specific study.
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Patient preferences and expert-generated clinical practice guidelines regarding treatment decisions may not be identical. The authors compared the thresholds for antithrombotic treatment from studies that determined or modeled the treatment preferences of patients with atrial fibrillation with recommendations from clinical practice guidelines. ⋯ For patients with atrial fibrillation, treatment recommendations from clinical practice guidelines often differ from patient preferences, with substantial heterogeneity in their individual preferences. Since patient preferences can have a substantial impact on the clinical decision-making process, acknowledgment of their importance should be incorporated into clinical practice guidelines. Practicing physicians need to balance the patient preferences with the treatment recommendations from clinical practice guidelines.
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Epilepsy currently affects more than 400,000 people in the United Kingdom and 2.3 million in the United States. Drug therapy is the mainstay of treatment for patients with epilepsy, but therapies vary widely in their mechanism of action and acquisition cost. This article describes a decision model developed for the National Institute for Clinical Excellence in the United Kingdom. ⋯ There is, however, considerable uncertainty regarding these results. Some of the methodological features of the study will be of value in designing cost-effectiveness analyses of other therapies for chronic conditions. These include the methods used to deal with the absence of head-to-head trial data and the need to reflect time dependency in Markov transition probabilities.
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To evaluate the relative importance of predictors of in-hospital mortality in severe sepsis and compare the performance of generic and disease-specific mortality prediction models. ⋯ Individual severe sepsis patient outcomes depend on an array of clinical predictors. Models incorporating sepsis disease-specific risk factors may predict mortality more accurately than generic ICU severity measures.