Hepatology : official journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases
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Infections worsen survival in cirrhosis; however, simple predictors of survival in infection-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (I-ACLF) derived from multicenter studies are required in order to improve prognostication and resource allocation. Using the North American Consortium for Study of End-stage Liver Disease (NACSELD) database, data from 18 centers were collected for survival analysis of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis patients hospitalized with an infection. We defined organ failures as 1) shock, 2) grade III/IV hepatic encephalopathy (HE), 3) need for dialysis and mechanical ventilation. Determinants of survival with these organ failures were analyzed. In all, 507 patients were included (55 years, 52% hepatitis C virus [HCV], 15.8% nosocomial infection, 96% Child score ≥ 7) and 30-day evaluations were available in 453 patients. Urinary tract infection (UTI) (28.5%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) (22.5%) were the most prevalent infections. During hospitalization, 55.7% developed HE, 17.6% shock, 15.1% required renal replacement, and 15.8% needed ventilation; 23% died within 30 days and 21.6% developed second infections. Admitted patients developed none (38.4%), one (37.3%), two (10.4%), three (10%), or four (4%) organ failures. The 30-day survival worsened with a higher number of extrahepatic organ failures, none (92%), one (72.6%), two (51.3%), three (36%), and all four (23%). I-ACLF was defined as ≥ 2 organ failures given the significant change in survival probability associated at this cutoff. Baseline independent predictors for development of ACLF were nosocomial infections, Model for Endstage Liver Disease (MELD) score, low mean arterial pressure (MAP), and non-SBP infections. Independent predictors of poor 30-day survival were I-ACLF, second infections, and admission values of high MELD, low MAP, high white blood count, and low albumin. ⋯ Using multicenter study data in hospitalized decompensated infected cirrhosis patients, I-ACLF defined by the presence of two or more organ failures using simple definitions is predictive of poor survival.
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Comparative Study
Cost analysis of sofosbuvir/ribavirin versus sofosbuvir/simeprevir for genotype 1 hepatitis C virus in interferon-ineligible/intolerant individuals.
Treatment guidance for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) released by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) and the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) offers two options for interferon (IFN)-ineligible/intolerant individuals with genotype 1 infection: sofosbuvir/ribavirin (SOF/RBV) for 24 weeks or sofosbuvir/simeprevir (SOF/SMV) for 12 weeks. A 24-week course of SOF/RBV costs approximately US$169,000, with sustained virologic response (SVR) rates ranging from 52% to 84%; 12 weeks of SOF/SMV costs approximately $150,000, with SVR between 89% and 100%. Because SOF/SMV is currently used off-label, debate exists among physicians and payers about whether it should be prescribed and covered. This article presents a cost-effectiveness analysis of these two treatment regimens accounting for costs of drugs, treatment-related medical care, retreatment for individuals who do not achieve SVR, and natural history of continued HCV infection after failed retreatment. Analysis uses a Markov model with a lifetime horizon and a societal perspective. In the base-case scenario, SOF/SMV dominated SOF/RBV in a modeled 50-year-old cohort of treatment-naïve and -experienced subjects, excluding those who failed earlier therapy with telaprevir or boceprevir. SOF/SMV yielded lower costs and more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the average subject, compared to SOF/RBV ($165,336 and 14.69 QALYs vs. $243,586 and 14.45 QALYs, respectively). In base-case cost analysis, the SOF/SMV treatment strategy saved $91,590 per SVR, compared to SOF/RBV. Under all one-way sensitivity scenarios, SOF/SMV remained dominant and resulted in cost savings. ⋯ These results suggest that a 12-week course of SOF/SMV is a more cost-effective treatment for genotype 1 CHC than 24 weeks of SOF/RBV among IFN-ineligible/intolerant individuals, supporting the AASLD/IDSA guidance and offering implications for both clinical and regulatory decision making as well as pharmaceutical pricing.
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Hepatitis B immunization has been documented to prevent fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by historical comparison studies in Taiwan. This study aimed to assess long-term risks and predictors of various liver diseases associated with incomplete immunization in 3.8 million vaccinees. Profiles of the National Hepatitis B Immunization Registry, National Cancer Registry, and National Death Certification Registry were linked to ascertain newly diagnosed cases of HCC and deaths from FHF and chronic liver diseases (CLDs) from infancy to early adulthood of 3,836,988 newborn vaccinees. Cox's proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for various risk predictors. There were 49 newly developed cases of HCC, 73 deaths from FHF, and 74 deaths from CLDs during the follow-up of 41,854,715 person-years. There were striking differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated newborns after the launch of a national immunization program for HCC incidence (0.293 vs. 0.117 per 100,000 person-years), FHF mortality (0.733 vs. 0.174 per 100,000 person-years), and CLD mortality (2.206 vs. 0.177 per 100,000 person-years). Among vaccinees, incomplete immunization was the most important risk predictor of HCC, FHF, and CLDs, showing an HR (95% confidence interval, P value) of 2.52 (1.25-5.05; P = 0.0094), 4.97 (3.05-8.11; P < 0.0001), and 6.27 (3.62-10.84; P < 0.0001), respectively, after adjustment for maternal hepatitis B serostatus. ⋯ Hepatitis B immunization can significantly prevent the long-term risk of HCC, FHF, and CLDs from infancy to early adulthood. Incomplete immunization with hepatitis B immunoglobulin or vaccines was the most important risk predictor of the liver disease among vaccinees.