Health affairs
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State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. ⋯ Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.
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Comparative Study
Funders Support Mental Health Care: COVID-19 And Before.
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Multicenter Study
Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators.
It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the United States for every patient who may need one during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there has been no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. ⋯ I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the potentially substantial number of lives that could be saved. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, or else make preparations for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future.
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As the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic spreads throughout the United States, evidence is mounting that racial and ethnic minorities and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are bearing a disproportionate burden of illness and death. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of COVID-19 patients at Sutter Health, a large integrated health system in northern California, to measure potential disparities. We used Sutter's integrated electronic health record to identify adults with suspected and confirmed COVID-19, and we used multivariable logistic regression to assess risk of hospitalization, adjusting for known risk factors, such as race/ethnicity, sex, age, health, and socioeconomic variables. ⋯ Among our findings, we observed that compared with non-Hispanic white patients, non-Hispanic African American patients had 2.7 times the odds of hospitalization, after adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities, and income. We explore possible explanations for this, including societal factors that either result in barriers to timely access to care or create circumstances in which patients view delaying care as the most sensible option. Our study provides real-world evidence of racial and ethnic disparities in the presentation of COVID-19.
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The patient-centered medical home model aspires to fundamentally restructure care processes, but a volume-based payment system may hinder such transformations. In 2013 Oregon's Medicaid program changed its reimbursement of traditional primary care services for selected community health centers (CHCs) from a per visit to a per patient rate. Using Oregon claims data, we analyzed the price-weighted volume of care for five service areas: traditional primary care services, including imaging, tests, and procedures; other services provided by CHCs that were carved out from the payment reform; emergency department visits; inpatient services; and other services of non-CHC providers. ⋯ The payment reform was associated with a 42.4 percent relative reduction in price-weighted traditional primary care services, driven fully by decreased use of imaging services. Other outcomes remained unaffected. Oregon's initiative could provide lessons for other states interested in using payment reform to advance the patient-centered medical home model for the Medicaid population.