Health affairs
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The global effort to develop a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine is on track to produce one or more authorized vaccines. We examine how different definitions and thresholds of vaccine efficacy, coupled with different levels of implementation effectiveness and background epidemic severity, translate into outcomes including cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. ⋯ The benefits of a vaccine will decline substantially in the event of manufacturing or deployment delays, significant vaccine hesitancy, or greater epidemic severity. Our findings demonstrate the urgent need for health officials to invest greater financial resources and attention to vaccine production and distribution programs, to redouble efforts to promote public confidence in COVID-19 vaccines, and to encourage continued adherence to other mitigation approaches, even after a vaccine becomes available.
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There has been a worldwide effort to accelerate the development of safe and effective vaccines for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2. When vaccines become licensed and available broadly to the public, the final hurdle is equitable distribution and access for all who are recommended for vaccination. ⋯ The system should be strengthened to address gaps in access to immunization services and to modernize the public health infrastructure. We offer five recommendations as guideposts to ensure that policies and practices at the federal, state, local, and tribal levels support equity, transparency, accountability, availability, and access to coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines.
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Worldwide, leaders are implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow transmission of the novel coronavirus while pursuing vaccines that confer immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. In this article we describe lessons learned from past pandemics and vaccine campaigns about the path to successful vaccine delivery. The historical record suggests that to have a widely immunized population, leaders must invest in evidence-based vaccine delivery strategies that generate demand, allocate and distribute vaccines, and verify coverage. ⋯ To distribute vaccines, the people and organizations with expertise in manufacturing, supply chains, and last-mile distribution must be positioned to direct efforts. To verify vaccine coverage, vaccination tracking systems that are portable, interoperable, and secure must be identified. Lessons of past pandemics suggest that nations should invest in evidence-informed strategies to ensure that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines protect individuals, suppress transmission, and minimize disruption to health services and livelihoods.
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The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves vaccines when their benefits outweigh the risks for their intended use. In this article we review the standard FDA approach to vaccine evaluation, which underpins its current approaches to assessment of vaccines to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The FDA has established pathways to accelerate vaccine availability before approval, such as Emergency Use Authorization, and to channel resources to high-priority products and allow more flexibility in the evidence required for approval, including accelerated approval based on surrogate markers of effectiveness. ⋯ This has generally been accomplished through such mechanisms as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and FDA Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, the CDC Vaccine Safety Datalink, and the CDC Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment Project. Adverse events detected in this way may lead to changes in a vaccine's recommended use or withdrawal from the market. Regulatory oversight of new vaccines must balance speed with rigor to effectively address the pandemic.
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Prices send signals about consumer preferences and thus stimulate producers to make more of what people want. Pricing in a pandemic is complicated and fraught. The policy puzzle involves balancing lower prices to ensure access to essential medications, vaccines, and tests against the need for adequate revenue streams to provide manufacturers with incentives to make the substantial, risky investments needed to develop products in the first place. ⋯ Ideally, analyses would be conducted from both a health system and a societal perspective. Incorporating the added value of social benefits into cost-effectiveness analyses does not mean that manufacturers should capture the entire societal benefit of a diagnostic, vaccine, or therapy. Such analyses can provide important information and help policy makers consider the full costs and benefits of products and the wide-ranging ramifications of their actions.