European journal of epidemiology
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Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is a devastating event with substantial case-fatality. Our purpose was to examine which clinical and neuro-imaging characteristics, available on admission, predict 60 day case-fatality in aSAH and to evaluate performance of our prediction model. We performed a secondary analysis of patients enrolled in the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT), a randomised multicentre trial to compare coiling with clipping in aSAH patients. ⋯ World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade was the most important predictor of case-fatality, followed by age, lumen size of the aneurysm and Fisher grade. The model discriminated reasonably between those who died within 60 days and those who survived (c statistic = 0.73), with minor optimism according to bootstrap re-sampling (optimism corrected c statistic = 0.70). Several strong predictors are available to predict 60 day case-fatality in aSAH patients who survived the early stage up till a treatment decision; after external validation these predictors could eventually be used in clinical decision making.