Archivos de bronconeumología
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Arch. Bronconeumol. · Jan 1998
Comparative Study[Solitary pulmonary nodule: application of Bayes theorem in prediction of malignancy].
Most radiological signs are of low specificity for predicting malignancy in patients with a solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN), making clinical management difficult. Only certain calcification patterns in SPN or the absence of growth over a period two years assures that the nodule is benign. The clinical and radiological characteristics of 31 patients with SPN were studied. ⋯ There were no significant differences in the characteristics of the computerized tomography images for the two groups. Mean likelihood of malignancy for patients with carcinoma, by Bayes' theorem, was 83.7%, a rate that was significantly higher than that of tuberculoma patients (46%) (p < 0.05). The application of Bayes' probability theorem for a set of clinical and radiological characteristics can orient the physician as to whether an SPN is likely to be malignant or not, thereby providing guidance on the advisability of performing invasive diagnostic procedures to determine etiology.