AIDS
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This paper presents the methods used to calculate the end of 1997 country-specific estimates of HIV and AIDS produced by the UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on Global HIV/AIDS and STD Surveillance. The objective of this exercise was to improve estimates on HIV/AIDS by using country-specific models of HIV/AIDS epidemics. The paper describes and discusses the processes and obstacles that were encountered in this multi-partner collaboration including national and international experts. ⋯ This exercise is an important step in improving understanding of the spread of HIV in different parts of the world. There are, however, shortcomings in the current systems of monitoring the epidemic. Improvements in HIV surveillance systems are needed in many parts of the world. In addition, further research is needed to understand fully the effects of the fertility reduction as a result of HIV, differing sex ratios in HIV infection and other factors influencing the course and measurement of the epidemic.