The European respiratory journal : official journal of the European Society for Clinical Respiratory Physiology
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Randomized Controlled Trial
Unified baseline and longitudinal mortality prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) model is a validated, baseline-risk prediction model for mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Longitudinal variables have been shown to contribute to risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and may improve the predictive performance of the baseline GAP model. Our aims were to further validate the GAP model and evaluate whether the addition of longitudinal variables improves its predictive performance. ⋯ However, the original GAP model tended to overestimate risk in this cohort. A novel, easy to use model, consisting of the original GAP predictors plus history of respiratory hospitalisation and 24-week change in forced vital capacity (the longitudinal GAP model) improved model performance with a C-statistic of 0.785 (95% CI 0.780-0.790), net reclassification improvement of 8.5%, clinical net reclassification improvement of 25%, and a goodness-of-fit test of 0.929. The Longitudinal GAP model, along with the original GAP model, may unify baseline and longitudinal mortality risk prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
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Our goal was to investigate whether obesity increases susceptibility to the adverse effects of indoor particulate matter on respiratory morbidity among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Participants with COPD were studied at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Obesity was defined as a body mass index ≥30 kg·m(-2). ⋯ Increases in PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 were associated with greater increases in nocturnal symptoms, dyspnoea and rescue medication use among obese versus non-obese participants. The impact of indoor PM on exacerbations, respiratory status and wheeze also tended to be greater among obese versus non-obese participants, as were differences in airway and systemic inflammatory responses to indoor PM. We found evidence that obesity was associated with exaggerated responses to indoor fine and coarse PM exposure among individuals with COPD.