Journal of neurotrauma
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Journal of neurotrauma · Jul 2014
Randomized Controlled TrialExternal validation of the CRASH and IMPACT prognostic models in severe traumatic brain injury.
An accurate prognostic model is extremely important in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) for both patient management and research. Clinical prediction models must be validated both internally and externally before they are considered widely applicable. Our aim is to independently externally validate two prediction models, one developed by the Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury (CRASH) trial investigators, and the other from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) group. ⋯ Using the CRASH CT model, the predicted 14 day mortality of 46.6% approximated the observed outcome, whereas the predicted 6 month unfavorable outcome was an overestimate at 74.8%. Overall, both the CRASH and IMPACT models showed good discrimination, with AUCs ranging from 0.80 to 0.89, and good overall calibration. We conclude that both the CRASH and IMPACT models satisfactorily predicted outcome in our patients with severe TBI.