Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN
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Lifetime risk is the cumulative risk of experiencing an outcome between a disease-free index age and death. The lifetime risk of ESRD for a middle-aged individual is a relevant and easy to communicate measure of disease burden. We estimated lifetime risk of ESRD in a cohort of 2,895,521 adults without ESRD from 1997 to 2008. ⋯ The lifetime risk of ESRD was consistently higher for men at all ages and eGFR strata compared with women. In conclusion, approximately 1 in 40 men and 1 in 60 women of middle age will develop ESRD during their lifetimes (living into their 90s). These population-based estimates may assist individuals who make decisions regarding public health policy.