Annals of epidemiology
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Annals of epidemiology · Mar 2007
Plausible and implausible parameters for mathematical modeling of nominal heterosexual HIV transmission.
Several mathematical models simulate a HIV/AIDS epidemic by using the assumption that heterosexual transmission is the major or sole transmission mode. The validity of these models has been unclear. To understand the validity of these models, empirical estimates for relevant model parameters are needed that can be compared with parameters used in mathematical models. ⋯ Existing models of nominal heterosexual HIV transmission for sub-Saharan Africa rely on assumptions inconsistent with empirical evidence. Simulations have not accurately portrayed the epidemiological situation in sub-Saharan Africa, and conclusions drawn from these models should be interpreted with great caution. To realistically simulate HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa's general population nominally due to heterosexual HIV transmission, parameter values should be based on the most accurate data.