PharmacoEconomics
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A discrete-event simulation of smoking-cessation strategies based on varenicline pivotal trial data.
Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the US. While one in five individuals smoke, and 70% of these indicate a desire to quit, <5% of unaided quit attempts succeed. Cessation aids can double or triple the odds of successfully quitting. Models of smoking-cessation behaviour can elucidate the implications of individual abstinence patterns to allow better tailoring of quit attempts to an individual's characteristics. ⋯ The model accurately replicated abstinence patterns observed in the clinical trial data using individualized predictions and indicated that varenicline was more effective and may be less costly than bupropion. This simulation incorporated individual predictions of abstinence and relapse, and provides a framework for lifetime modelling that considers multiple quit attempts over time in diverse patient populations using a variety of quit attempt strategies.