Journal of evaluation in clinical practice
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Many real world decisions have to be made on a limited evidence base, and clinical decisions are at best problematic. We explored some of the reasons why decision making in health care is so complex, and examined how decision analytic techniques might contribute to problem structuring and to implementation of evidence-based practice. We argued that decision analysis could, to some extent, overcome complexity of decision making by a clear structuring of the problem and a formal analysis of the implications of different decisions. ⋯ However, decision analysis-derived guidelines will make general recommendations that may not be appropriate for all individuals. Nonetheless, decision analysis does make such implications explicit and propose that the guidelines should be supported by some mechanism for determining individual patient preferences. It will now need to consider whether some of NICE resources should be directed beyond evidence-based guidelines into decision analysis-derived guidelines and into decision analytical techniques to provide support for clinical and cost effective decision making within the patient-clinician encounter.
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Statistical analysis of both experimental and observational data is central to medical research. Unfortunately, the process of conventional statistical analysis is poorly understood by many medical scientists. This is due, in part, to the counter-intuitive nature of the basic tools of traditional (frequency-based) statistical inference. ⋯ For example, they can be used to assist decision making based upon studies with unavoidably low statistical power, where non-significant results are all too often, and wrongly, interpreted as implying 'no effect'. They can also be used to overcome the confusion that can result when statistically significant effects are too small to be clinically relevant. This paper describes the theoretical basis of the Bayesian-based approach and illustrates its application with a practical example that investigates the prevalence of major cardiac defects in a cohort of children born using the assisted reproduction technique known as ICSI (intracytoplasmic sperm injection).