The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
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Int. J. Tuberc. Lung Dis. · Mar 2000
Modeling the epidemiology and economics of directly observed therapy in Baltimore.
From 1958 to 1978, Baltimore maintained one of the highest pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) rates in the US. But, from 1978 to 1992 its TB rate declined by 64.3% and its ranking for TB fell from second highest among large US cites to twenty-eighth. This TB trend coincided with the implementation of an aggressive directly observed therapy (DOT) program by Baltimore's Health Department. ⋯ Our model predicts that Baltimore's TB decline accompanying DOT resulted in health care savings equal to twice the city's total TB control budget for this period. These results are most plausibly due to DOT, since it was the only major change in Baltimore's TB control program, and rising TB risk factors-AIDS, injection drug use, poverty-in a city where TB had been epidemic should have triggered a TB increase as in comparable US cities, rather than the observed decline. As national TB rates continue to decline it will be important to identify ways to capture and reinvest these savings to support effective TB control programs.