Eur J Trauma Emerg S
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Eur J Trauma Emerg S · Feb 2015
Observational StudyPredicting outcomes in patients with perforated gastroduodenal ulcers: artificial neural network modelling indicates a highly complex disease.
Mortality prediction models for patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have not yielded consistent or highly accurate results. Given the complex nature of this disease, which has many non-linear associations with outcomes, we explored artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the complex interactions between the risk factors of PPU and death among patients with this condition. ⋯ The prediction of death was most accurate when using an ANN model with several univariate influences on the outcome. This finding demonstrates that PPU is a highly complex disease for which clinical prognoses are likely difficult. The incorporation of computerised learning systems might enhance clinical judgments to improve decision making and outcome prediction.