J Trauma
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The purpose of this study was to compare the abilities of nine Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS)- and (ICD-9)-based scoring algorithms in predicting mortality. ⋯ Differences in performance were relatively small. Complex scores such as the ICISS and the APS provide improvement in discrimination relative to the maxAIS and the ISS. Trauma registries should move to include the ICISS and the APS. The ISS and maxAIS perform moderately well and have bedside benefits.
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TRISS has reigned as the preeminent trauma outcome prediction model for 20 years. Despite this endorsement, the calibration of TRISS has been poor in most data sets where it has been examined. We hypothesized that the lack of calibration of TRISS was because of the inappropriate mathematical specification of the model that TRISS is based on, rather than the predictors in the model. In particular, we hypothesized that the nonlinearity of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) in the log odds of death was responsible for the poor calibration of TRISS, and further, that this nonlinearity could be corrected by the simple addition of an ISS squared term to the TRISS model. ⋯ The TRISS model for outcome prediction currently uses ISS in a mathematically inappropriate way that impairs the calibration, but not the discrimination, of its predictions. If TRISS is to continue as the prediction standard for trauma, a quadratic ISS term must be added to the model. In the future, outcome prediction models should undergo thorough statistical modeling and evaluation before being released. Injury severity descriptors other than ISS (such as ASCOT, ICISS, or NISS) may require other modeling techniques to optimize the calibration of survival models that use these injury scores.
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We have evaluated our recent experience as a Level I trauma center to test the hypothesis that preinjury anticoagulation adversely affects the morbidity and mortality of trauma patients with an intracranial injury. ⋯ These data indicate that the trauma patient with preinjury anticoagulation such as warfarin or even aspirin who has an intracranial injury has a four- to fivefold higher risk of death than the nonanticoagulated patient. The efficacy of reversing the anticoagulant effect at the time of hospital admission remains to be evaluated.