Journal of theoretical biology
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Glioblastoma originates in the brain and is one of the most aggressive cancer types. Glioblastoma represents 15% of all brain tumours, with a median survival of 15 months. Although the current standard of care for such a tumour (the Stupp protocol) has shown positive results for the prognosis of patients, O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) driven drug resistance has been an issue of increasing concern and hence requires innovative approaches. ⋯ In addition by constraining the model to relevant biological data using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we were able to identify parameter regimes that yield different possible modes of resistances, namely, phenotypic selection of MGMT, a downshift in the methylation status of the MGMT promoter or both simultaneously. We analysed each of the parameter sets associated with the different modes of resistance, presenting representative solutions as well as discovering some similarities between them as well as unique requirements for each of them. Finally, we used them to devise optimal strategies for inhibiting MGMT expression with the aim of minimising live glioblastoma cell numbers.
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In the event of a novel influenza strain that is markedly different to the current strains circulating in humans, the population have little/no immunity and infection spreads quickly causing a global pandemic. Over the past century, there have been four major influenza pandemics: the 1918 pandemic ("Spanish Flu"), the 1957-58 pandemic (the "Asian Flu"), the 1967-68 pandemic (the "Hong Kong Flu") and the 2009 pandemic (the "Swine flu"). To inform planning against future pandemics, this paper investigates how different is the net-present value of employing pre-purchase and responsive- purchased vaccine programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs to scenarios that resemble these historic influenza pandemics. ⋯ When comparing the two vaccine programmes, the RPV policy allowed a longer timeframe and lower coverage to attain the same benefit as the PPV policy. Our findings suggest that responsive-purchase vaccination policy has a bigger window of positive net-present value when employed against each of the historic influenza pandemic strains but needs to be rapidly available to maximise benefit. This is important for future planning as it suggests that future preparedness policies may wish to consider utilising timely (i.e. responsive-purchased) vaccines against emerging influenza pandemics.
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Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a pulmonary pathogen of major global concern. A key feature of Mtb infection in primates is the formation of granulomas, dense cellular structures surrounding infected lung tissue. These structures serve as the main site of host-pathogen interaction in TB, and thus to effectively treat TB we must clarify mechanisms of granuloma formation and their function in disease. ⋯ Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, along with large simulation sets, enable us to identify mechanisms differentiating centrally versus peripherally fibrotic granulomas. These findings suggest that heterogeneous cytokine environments exist within granulomas and may be responsible for driving tissue scale morphologies. Using this model we are primed to better understand the complex structure of granulomas, a necessity for developing successful treatments for TB.
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Workers in insect societies are sometimes observed to kill male eggs of other workers, a phenomenon known as worker policing. We perform a mathematical analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of policing. We investigate the selective forces behind policing for both dominant and recessive mutations for different numbers of matings of the queen. ⋯ We find that the relatedness-based argument is not robust with respect to small changes in colony efficiency caused by policing. We also calculate evolutionarily singular strategies and determine when they are evolutionarily stable. We use a population genetics approach that applies to dominant or recessive mutations of any effect size.
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In this work, we are proposing an extension of a recent hemodynamic model (Fantini, 2014a), which was developed within the framework of a novel approach to the study of tissue hemodynamics, named coherent hemodynamics spectroscopy (CHS). The previous hemodynamic model, from a signal processing viewpoint, treats the tissue microvasculature as a linear time-invariant system, and considers changes of blood volume, capillary blood flow velocity and the rate of oxygen diffusion as inputs, and the changes of oxy-, deoxy-, and total hemoglobin concentrations (measured in near infrared spectroscopy) as outputs. The model has been used also as a forward solver in an inversion procedure to retrieve quantitative parameters that assess physiological and biological processes such as microcirculation, cerebral autoregulation, tissue metabolic rate of oxygen, and oxygen extraction fraction. ⋯ We have found that for capillary blood flow velocity oscillations with amplitudes up to 10% of the baseline value (which reflect typical scenarios in CHS), the discrepancies between CHS spectra obtained with the linear and nonlinear models are negligible. For larger oscillations (~50%) the linear and nonlinear models yield CHS spectra with differences within typical experimental errors, but further investigation is needed to assess the effect of these differences. Flow oscillations larger than 10-20% are not typically induced in CHS; therefore, the results presented in this work indicate that a linear hemodynamic model, combined with a method to elicit controlled hemodynamic oscillations (as done for CHS), is appropriate for the quantitative assessment of cerebral microcirculation.