Plos One
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Italy became the second epicenter of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic after China, surpassing by far China's death toll. The disease swept through Lombardy, which remained in lockdown for about two months, starting from the 8th of March. As of that day, the isolation measures taken in Lombardy were extended to the entire country. Here, assuming that effectively there was one case "zero" that introduced the virus to the region, we provide estimates for: (a) the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, Italy; (b) the actual number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population until March 8; (c) the basic (R0)and the effective reproduction number (Re) based on the estimation of the actual number of infected cases. To demonstrate the efficiency of the model and approach, we also provide a tentative forecast two months ahead of time, i.e. until May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced, on the basis of the COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports released by Google on March 29. ⋯ Based on the proposed methodological procedure, we estimated that the expected day-zero was January 14 (min-max rage: January 5 to January 23, interquartile range: January 11 to January 18). The actual cumulative number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population in Lombardy on March 8 was of the order of 15 times the confirmed cumulative number of infected cases, while the expected value of the basic reproduction number R0 was found to be 4.53 (min-max range: 4.40- 4.65). On May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced the effective reproduction number was found to be 0.987 (interquartiles: 0.857, 1.133). The model approximated adequately two months ahead of time the evolution of reported cases of infected until May 4, the day on which the phase I of the relaxation of measures was implemented over all of Italy. Furthermore the model predicted that until May 4, around 20% of the population in Lombardy has recovered (interquartile range: ∼10% to ∼30%).
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Forecasting epidemics like COVID-19 is of crucial importance, it will not only help the governments but also, the medical practitioners to know the future trajectory of the spread, which might help them with the best possible treatments, precautionary measures and protections. In this study, the popular autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) will be used to forecast the cumulative number of confirmed, recovered cases, and the number of deaths in Pakistan from COVID-19 spanning June 25, 2020 to July 04, 2020 (10 days ahead forecast). ⋯ It is concluded from this study that the forecasting accuracy of ARIMA models in terms of RMSE, and MAE are better than the other time series models, and therefore could be considered a good forecasting tool in forecasting the spread, recoveries, and deaths from the current outbreak of COVID-19. Besides, this study can also help the decision-makers in developing short-term strategies with regards to the current number of disease occurrences until an appropriate medication is developed.
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Acute trauma pain is poorly managed in the emergency department (ED). The reasons are partly organizational: ED crowding and rare trauma care pathways contribute to oligoanalgesia. Anticipating the organizational impact of an innovative care procedure might facilitate the decision-making process and help to optimize pain management. ⋯ Our model highlighted the putative positive organizational impact of methoxyflurane in the ED-particularly when supported by a trauma care pathway-and the relevance of expert consensus in this particular pharmacoeconomic context. The MCDA approach could be extended to other research fields and healthcare challenges in emergency medicine.
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Perceived parental influence on diet in early adolescence in the context of the parental relationship had previously not been studied in a clinical sample. The aim of this study was to investigate a possible association between eating disorders and characteristics of the relationship with parents and the parental feeding practices in early adolescence. ⋯ The parental relationship is partly reflected in the self-acceptance and self-responsibility in eating of the adolescent and young females, both of them are particularly affected in EDs. Stressors in the parent-child relationship should be targeted in treatment of eating disorders. Nutritional counselling for parents might be useful in early adolescence.
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Intraoperative microelectrode recording (MER) and test-stimulation are regarded as the gold standard for proper placement of subthalamic (STN) deep brain stimulation (DBS) electrodes in Parkinson's disease (PD), requiring the patient to be awake during the procedure. In accordance with good clinical practice, most attending neurologists will request the clinically most efficacious trajectory for definite lead placement. However, the necessity of microelectrode-test-stimulation is disputed, as it may limit the access to DBS therapy, excluding those not willing or incapable of undergoing awake surgery. ⋯ Intraoperative testing is mandatory to ensure an optimal motor outcome of STN DBS in PD-patients when using quadripolar ring electrodes. However, we also demonstrated that neither the length of the STN-signal on MER nor the number of test electrodes influenced the motor outcome.