Plos One
-
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic represents a global challenge. SARS-CoV-2's ability to replicate in host cells relies on the action of its non-structural proteins, like its main protease (Mpro). This cysteine protease acts by processing the viruses' precursor polyproteins. ⋯ Benzophenone derivatives could also be identified among the most potent screening hits. Additionally, Evans blue, a sulfonic acid-containing dye, could be identified as an Mpro inhibitor. The obtained compounds could be of interest as lead compounds for the development of future SARS-CoV-2 drugs.
-
The spread of COVID-19 implied a large and fast increase of demand for intensive care services. To face this increase in demand, health care systems need to adapt their response by increasing hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) capacity and by (re-)deploying doctors and other personnel. This paper proposes a forecast approach based on the Vector Error Correction model for the daily counts of hospitalized patients with symptoms and of patients in ICU, using publicly available data on the current COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, Switzerland and Spain. ⋯ The one-week-ahead forecasts are validated with out-of-sample data over successive weeks; they are found to provide timely and robust prediction of ICU capacity needs in Lombardy, the most-affected Italian region, starting from the sample of the first 2 weeks of data. The same methodology is successfully validated on other Italian regions, Switzerland and Spain. This approach may be used in other countries/regions/provinces to help adapt the health care system response to COVID-19 (or other similar disease); for this purpose, the open-source software code to produce the forecasts is provided with the paper.
-
Child mortality from rotavirus gastroenteritis remains high in Nigeria, representing 14% of all rotavirus deaths worldwide. Here, we examine the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of national rotavirus vaccine introduction in geographic and economic subpopulations of Nigeria. We projected the health and economic outcomes of rotavirus vaccination in children over the first five years of life using a spreadsheet-based model. ⋯ According to one-way sensitivity analyses, ICERs were most sensitive to vaccine efficacy, followed by estimated administrative costs and rotavirus mortality. Disparities in mortality reduction were largely driven by inequality in vaccination coverage across regions and between socioeconomic subpopulations. Due to high, persistent, and inequitable burden of rotavirus in Nigeria, routine vaccination with any of these rotavirus vaccines would be an high impact and cost-effective strategy in reducing child mortality.
-
Validation of administrative databases for cerebrovascular diseases is crucial for epidemiological, outcome, and health services research. The aim of this study was to validate ICD-9 codes for hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke in administrative databases, to use them for a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in terms of major outcomes, such as mortality, hospital readmissions, and use of healthcare resources. ⋯ Case ascertainment for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke showed good or high levels of accuracy within the regional healthcare databases in Umbria. This database can confidently be employed for epidemiological, outcome, and health services research related to any type of stroke.
-
Low levels of physical activity (PA) and high levels of physical inactivity (PI) are associated with higher mortality and cardiovascular diseases. Higher age is associated with a decrease of PA, only 2.4-29% of ≥60 year-olds achieve the PA times recommended by WHO. The aim of this study was to identify levels of and determinants for moderate PA, overall PA and PI in a sample of individuals aged ≥65 years. ⋯ The participants of our study showed high levels of PA. This is likely due to selection bias in this convenience sample. However, also levels of PI are very high and those correspond with average levels in the German population. The determinants for higher PA and lower PI differed between males and females. Thus, strategies for improving PA and decrease PI are likely different with respect to sex and should take individual factors (e.g. age, BMI) into account.