Health services research
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Health services research · Oct 2002
An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare system.
To quantify uncertainty in forecasts of health expenditures. ⋯ History is a valuable guide for quantifying our uncertainty about future health expenditures. The probabilistic model we present has several advantages over the high-low scenario approach to forecasting. It indicates great uncertainty about future Medicare expenditures relative to GDP.
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Health services research · Oct 2002
Whom should we profile? Examining diabetes care practice variation among primary care providers, provider groups, and health care facilities.
To evaluate the amount of variation in diabetes practice patterns at the primary care provider (PCP), provider group, and facility level, and to examine the reliability of diabetes care profiles constructed using electronic databases. ⋯ little of the variation in many currently measured diabetes care practices is attributable to PCPs and, unless panel sizes are large, PCP profiling will be inaccurate. If profiling is to improve quality, it may be best to focus on examining facility-level performance variations and on developing indicators that promote specific, high-priority clinical actions.