Bmc Med
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It is estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic will drastically increase all forms of malnutrition. Of particular concern, yet understated, is the potential to increase the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) epidemic. This coexistence of undernutrition together with overweight and obesity, or diet-related non-communicable disease (NCD), within low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) is increasing rapidly. Although multiple factors contribute to the DBM, food insecurity (FI) and gut microbiota dysbiosis play a crucial role. Both under- and overnutrition have been shown to be a consequence of food insecurity. The gut microbiota has also been recently implicated in playing a role in under- and overnutrition, with altered community structure and function common to both. The pandemic has already caused significant shifts in food availability which has immediate effects on the gut microbiome. In this opinion paper, we discuss how COVID-19 may indirectly exacerbate the DBM through food insecurity and the gut microbiome. ⋯ Low- to mid-income countries will likely see an increase in the DBM epidemic. Providing access to nutritious foods and protecting individuals' gut microbiome to "flatten the curve" of the DBM trajectory should be prioritized.
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Sex hormones have been suggested to play a role in colorectal cancer (CRC), but their influence on early initiation of CRC remains unknown. ⋯ The findings suggest a potential role of sex hormones, particularly SHBG, in early colorectal carcinogenesis.
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SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. ⋯ The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.
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Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. ⋯ Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.
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Studies systematically screening medications have successfully identified prescription medicines associated with cancer risk. However, adjustment for confounding factors in these studies has been limited. We therefore investigated the association between frequently prescribed medicines and the risk of common cancers adjusting for a range of confounders. ⋯ In this study a number of novel associations between medicine and cancer were identified which require further clinical and epidemiological investigation. The majority of medicines were not associated with an altered cancer risk and many identified signals reflected known associations between medicine and cancer.