Bmc Med
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The science of complex systems has been proposed as a way of understanding health services and the demand for them, but there is little quantitative evidence to support this. We analysed patterns of healthcare use in different urgent care settings to see if they showed two characteristic statistical features of complex systems: heavy-tailed distributions (including the inverse power law) and generative burst patterns. ⋯ Urgent healthcare use displays characteristic statistical features of large complex systems. These studies provide strong quantitative evidence that healthcare services behave as complex systems and have important implications for urgent care. Interventions to manage demand must address drivers for consultation across the whole system: focusing on only the highest users (in the tail of the distribution) will have limited impact on efficiency. Bursts of attendance - and ways to shorten them - represent promising targets for managing demand.
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There is increasing interest in estimating the broader benefits of public health interventions beyond those captured in traditional cost-utility analyses. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in principle offers a way to capture such benefits, but a wide variety of methods have been used to monetise benefits in CBAs. ⋯ Applying different approaches to monetise benefits in CBA can lead to widely varying outcomes on public health interventions such as vaccination. Use of CBA to inform priority setting in public health will require greater convergence around appropriate methodology to achieve consistency and comparability across different studies.
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The ever-increasing number of reasons forcing people to flee from their homes to new, safer places either within their countries of origin, into neighbouring countries or across continental, conversant and cultural boundaries has led to a humanitarian crisis to which scientific enquiry must increasingly contribute. Yet, little is known about how best to support refugee adults and children in the process of resettling in high-income nations, an issue which the recent study by Lau et al. published in this journal, is attempting to address. ⋯ Herein, the need to support parenting capability and to facilitate public policy to work within an evidence-based framework are discussed. Please see related article: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-018-1124-5 .
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High-income countries like Australia play a vital role in resettling refugees from around the world, half of whom are children and adolescents. Informed by an ecological framework, this study examined the post-migration adjustment of refugee children and adolescents 2-3 years after arrival to Australia. We aimed to estimate the overall rate of adjustment among young refugees and explore associations with adjustment and factors across individual, family, school, and community domains, using a large and broadly representative sample. ⋯ This is the first study to report on child psychosocial outcomes from the large, representative longitudinal BNLA study. Our findings indicate sound adjustment for the majority of young refugees resettled in Australia. Further research should examine the nature of associations between variables identified in this study. Overall, treating mental health problems early remains a priority in resettlement. Initiatives to enhance parental capability, physical health, school achievement and participation could assist to improve settlement outcomes for young refugees.
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We have previously conducted computer-based tournaments to compare the yield of alternative approaches to deploying mobile HIV testing services in settings where the prevalence of undetected infection may be characterized by 'hotspots'. We report here on three refinements to our prior assessments and their implications for decision-making. Specifically, (1) enlarging the number of geographic zones; (2) including spatial correlation in the prevalence of undetected infection; and (3) evaluating a prospective search algorithm that accounts for such correlation. ⋯ BYM narrowly outperformed TS in our simulation, suggesting that small improvements in yield can be achieved by accounting for spatial correlation. However, the comparative simplicity with which TS can be implemented makes a field evaluation critical to understanding the practical value of either of these algorithms as an alternative to existing approaches for deploying HIV testing resources.