Canadian Medical Association journal
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This paper compares the management of two groups of patients with flail chest. The 25 patients in group 1 had a flail chest without other significant injuries or shock, whereas the 57 in group 2 had a flail chest with multiple injuries, shock or both. The group 1 patients were treated with repeated multiple intercostal nerve blocks or high segmental epidural analgesia, oxygen, intensive chest physiotherapy, fluid restriction, furosemide diuretics, methylprednisolone sodium succinate and colloid infusion in an intensive care unit. ⋯ However, tracheostomy was avoided in the other 21 patients in group 2. There were no deaths in group 1, but 8 (14%) of the patients in group 2 died. These results show that avoidance of tracheostomy and ventilation in selected patients with flail chest is consistent with a low morbidity and mortality.
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We have now shown you how to use decision analysis in making those rare, tough diagnostic decisions that are not soluble through other, easier routes. In summary, to "use more complex maths" the following steps will be useful: Create a decision tree or map of all the pertinent courses of action and their consequences. Assign probabilities to the branches of each chance node. ⋯ That concludes this series of clinical epidemiology rounds. You've come a long way from "doing it with pictures" and are now able to extract most of the diagnostic information that can be provided from signs, symptoms and laboratory investigations. We would appreciate learning whether you have found this series useful and how we can do a better job of presenting these and other elements of "the science of the art of medicine".
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The use of simple maths with the likelihood ratio strategy fits in nicely with our clinical views. By making the most out of the entire range of diagnostic test results (i.e., several levels, each with its own likelihood ratio, rather than a single cut-off point and a single ratio) and by permitting us to keep track of the likelihood that a patient has the target disorder at each point along the diagnostic sequence, this strategy allows us to place patients at an extremely high or an extremely low likelihood of disease. Thus, the numbers of patients with ultimately false-positive results (who suffer the slings of labelling and the arrows of needless therapy) and of those with ultimately false-negative results (who therefore miss their chance for diagnosis and, possibly, efficacious therapy) will be dramatically reduced. ⋯ However, these combinations may not be independent, and convergent diagnostic tests, if treated as independent, will combine to overestimate the final post-test probability of disease. You are now far more sophisticated in interpreting diagnostic tests than most of your teachers. In the last part of our series we will show you some rather complex strategies that combine diagnosis and therapy, quantify our as yet nonquantified ideas about use, and require the use of at least a hand calculator.