Revista médica de Chile
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Revista médica de Chile · Jul 2023
Incidence moments: Short term forecast of the COVID-19 incidence rate in Chile.
The predictability of any epidemic is highly uncertain, especially regarding a new emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. ⋯ The third incidence moment method is suitable for short-term forecasting of COVID-19 with an error of around 30%. This forecast represents a short time of predictability in mainly chaotic dynamics. The predictability decreased only slightly due to pharmacological interventions and the income of new virus variants. We found low predictability in the initial periods of the epidemic and during the Omicron epidemic outbreak.