Health care management science
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Health Care Manag Sci · Mar 2015
A predictive analytics approach to reducing 30-day avoidable readmissions among patients with heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, or COPD.
Hospital readmission has become a critical metric of quality and cost of healthcare. Medicare anticipates that nearly $17 billion is paid out on the 20 % of patients who are readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Although several interventions such as transition care management have been practiced in recent years, the effectiveness and sustainability depends on how well they can identify patients at high risk of rehospitalization. ⋯ We further propose a tree-based classification method to estimate the predicted probability of readmission that can directly incorporate patient's history of readmission and risk factors changes over time. The proposed methods are validated with 2011-12 Veterans Health Administration data from inpatients hospitalized for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the State of Michigan. Results shows improved discrimination power compared to the literature (c-statistics >80 %) and good calibration.
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Health Care Manag Sci · Mar 2015
A cost sensitive inpatient bed reservation approach to reduce emergency department boarding times.
Emergency departments (ED) in hospitals are experiencing severe crowding and prolonged patient waiting times. A significant contributing factor is boarding delays where admitted patients are held in ED (occupying critical resources) until an inpatient bed is identified and readied in the admit wards. Recent research has suggested that if the hospital admissions of ED patients can be predicted during triage or soon after, then bed requests and preparations can be triggered early on to reduce patient boarding time. ⋯ The policy relies on a classifier that estimates the probability that the ED patient will be admitted using the patient information collected and readily available at triage or right after. The policy is cost sensitive in that it accounts for costs associated with patient admission prediction misclassification as well as costs associated with incorrectly selecting the reservation time. Results from testing the proposed bed reservation policy using data from a VA Medical Center are very promising and suggest significant cost saving opportunities and reduced patient boarding times.
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Health Care Manag Sci · Dec 2014
Dynamic patient grouping and prioritization: a new approach to emergency department flow improvement.
The demand on emergency departments (ED) is variable and ever increasing, often leaving them overcrowded. Many hospitals are utilizing triage algorithms to rapidly sort and classify patients based on the severity of their injury or illness, however, most current triage methods are prone to over- or under-triage. In this paper, the group technology (GT) concept is applied to the triage process to develop a dynamic grouping and prioritization (DGP) algorithm. ⋯ Discrete event simulation (DES) has been implemented to investigate the impact of the DGP algorithm on the performance measures of the ED system. The impact was studied in comparison with the currently used triage algorithm, i.e., emergency severity index (ESI). The DGP algorithm outperforms the ESI algorithm by shortening patients' average length of stay (LOS), average time to bed (TTB), time in emergency room, and lowering the percentage of tardy patients and their associated risk in the system.
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Health Care Manag Sci · Jun 2014
HIV epidemic control-a model for optimal allocation of prevention and treatment resources.
With 33 million people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and 2.7 million new infections occurring annually, additional HIV prevention and treatment efforts are urgently needed. However, available resources for HIV control are limited and must be used efficiently to minimize the future spread of the epidemic. We develop a model to determine the appropriate resource allocation between expanded HIV prevention and treatment services. ⋯ As part of these applications, we develop a novel approach for estimating empirical HIV program production functions. Our study provides insights into the important question of resource allocation for a country's optimal response to its HIV epidemic and provides a practical approach for decision makers. Better decisions about allocating limited HIV resources can improve response to the epidemic and increase access to HIV prevention and treatment services for millions of people worldwide.
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Health Care Manag Sci · Mar 2014
An IP-based healthcare provider shift design approach to minimize patient handoffs.
The new Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) duty-hour standards for residents and fellows went into effect in 2011. These regulations were designed to reduce fatigue-related medical errors and improve patient safety. The new shift restrictions, however, have led to more frequent transitions in patient care (handoffs), resulting in greater opportunity for communication breakdowns between caregivers, which correlate with medical errors and adverse events. ⋯ This research leverages integer programming methods to design a work shift schedule for trainees that minimizes patient handoffs while complying with all ACGME duty-hour standards, providing required coverage, and maintaining physician quality of life. In a case study of redesigning the trainees' schedule for a Mayo Clinic Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU), we show that the number of patient handoffs can be reduced by 23 % and still meet all required and most desired scheduling constraints. Furthermore, a 48 % reduction in handoffs could be achieved if only the minimum required rules are satisfied.