Computers and biomedical research, an international journal
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Comput. Biomed. Res. · Aug 1993
A time-series approach to predict outcome from pediatric intensive care.
Daily assessment of the physiologic status of intensive care unit (ICU) patients by a validated score is used to predict their discharge as either alive or dead. Daily scores were decorrelated by time-series analysis techniques to establish a predictor of the next day's score. ⋯ Using the highest predicted score observed in any survivor from this data base as a threshold value, this predictor correctly identified 21.9% (sensitivity) of the nonsurvivors with no errors in predicting a fatal outcome (100% specificity). This performance is significantly (P < 0.001) better than that with a static predictor based on the first- or second-day scores only (6.6 or 7.4% sensitivity, respectively), or a known empirical dynamic model using the scores of the 2 most recent days (10.3% sensitivity, P < 0.002).