Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi
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Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi · Apr 2020
[Investigation of an epidemic cluster caused by COVID⁃19 cases in incubation period in Shanghai].
Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of a cluster of 5 confirmed COVID⁃19 cases related with the transmission in incubation period of initial case, and find out the infection source and transmission chain.. Methods: According to "The Prevention and Control Protocol for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Third Edition)" issued by the National Health Commission, a field epidemiological survey was conducted for the 5 cases in January 2020. Nasopharyngeal swabs and sputum samples were collected from them for the detection of 2019-nCoV by real time RT-PCR. ⋯ Case 2 and case 3 might be infected by case 1 during the incubation period. It is the key point for epidemiological investigation. Conclusion: The epidemiological investigation indicates that the transmission might occur in the incubation period of COVID-19 case, close attention should be paid to it in future COVID-19 prevention and control.
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Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi · Mar 2020
[WITHDRAWN: Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients].
Editor office’s response for Ahead of Print article withdrawn The article “Potential false-positive rate among the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients” was under strong discussion after pre-published. Questions from the readers mainly focused on the article’s results and conclusions were depended on theoretical deduction, but not the field epidemiology data and further researches were needed to prove the current theory. Based on previous discussions, the article was decided to be offline by the editorial board from the pre-publish lists. Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. ⋯ Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
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Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi · Feb 2020
Review[An update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)].
Through literature review and group discussion, Special Expert Group for Control of the Epidemic of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association formulated an update on the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). The initial source of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, with pangolins as a potential animal host. Currently the main source of infection is NCP patients, and asymptomatic carriers may also be infectious. ⋯ Most NCP patients were clinically mild cases. The case fatality rate was 2.38%, and elderly men with underlying diseases were at a higher risk of death. Strategies for prevention and control of NCP include improving epidemic surveillance, quarantining the source of infection, speeding up the diagnosis of suspected cases, optimizing the management of close contacts, tightening prevention and control of cluster outbreaks and hospital infection, preventing possible rebound of the epidemic after people return to work from the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, and strengthening community prevention and control.