Cahiers de sociologie et de démographie médicales
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Cah Sociol Demogr Med · Jan 2004
Comparative Study[Demographic forecasts of medical workforce supply in France (2000-2050). What numerus clausus for what future?].
In France, medical training and graduation of medical doctors are under the full control of the State. A numerus clausus barrier is established between the first year and the second year of medical schools. The first year is open to all students having successfully completed their secondary schooling (18 years old) but the number of those allowed to start the second year is decided every year by the government. Foreign medical graduates can practise only if they have obtained authorization from the State. Theoretically, the authorities have all means for shaping the size of the medical workforce, either in the short term (e.g. by importing foreign medical graduates to fill up vacant posts) or in the long run (by increasing or decreasing the numerus clausus, or student intake, to cope with shortage or oversupply of doctors). In practice, due to various constraints, the issue is far from simple (resistance to change, divergent lobbying forces and, more importantly, lack of relevant information). ⋯ With a 8000 student intake, the number of physicians (200,800 in 2000) will increase to 209,300 in 2010 then will slowly decrease to 205,900 in 2030. After, it will grow again and reach 229,500 in 2050. With a 6000 student intake, the number of physicians will also increase to 209,300 in 2010, then will rapidly decrease to 173,700 in 2030. The downward trend will stop in 2035. After, a slow growth will take place and the medical profession will number 173,500 in 2050 (Table C and Fig. 1). In other words, if a numerus clausus of 8000 is decided, the large retirement of the 1974-1994 graduate boomers (during the period 2010-2030) will be nearly offset by the newcomers. At the same time, the aging of the medical workforce will be stopped. Instead, a new younging process of the medical profession will take place again after 2020 (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). As it was the case during the early 70's, the younging process or pouring in of new graduates in great numbers may possibly fuel a strong perception of oversupply and lead to a sharp decrease of the numerus clausus after 2020 (sec variants Ib, Ic, IIb, IIc in Table A and C). As the numerus clausus has been increased during the first decade of the century, the two opposite moves (upward and downward) will create once again a phenomenon of "graduate boom". The boom will be far more important with a student intake of 8000 (Table F and Fig. 5) than a student intake of 6000 (Table G and Fig. 7). Even with 8000 students, the boom will not appear if the intake (numerus clausus) is not decreased after 2020. Consequently, if the decision is made today to increase sharply the student intake, we should be sure not to have to decrease it strongly in two or three decades. A less important increase decided today will not totally fill the gap when those graduated during the period 1974-1994 will retire and the national number of physicians will diminish. But such a decision will probably avoid the appearance of a feeling of oversupply in the coming decades and its subsequent problems (decreased student intake and, a decade later, a new graduate boom).
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Cah Sociol Demogr Med · Jan 2004
Comparative StudyThe medical profession in Germany: past trends, current state and future prospects.
In conclusion, the shortage of doctors can be described as a pincer movement. The German medical profession is both superannuated and faces difficulty recruiting new young doctors. The shortage of doctors in Germany is thus not caused by a mass exodus of those already working in the system but by the reluctance of young doctors to work in curative medicine. ⋯ The conclusion must be that the standard conditions for doctors must be made more attractive so that young people take more interest in curative medicine. If this does not happen, there will be bottlenecks in the supply of medical care on a broad front in Germany. In the end, the provision of medical care for the population as a whole could be jeopardised.